Archive for July, 2013

Can We Stop Chinese Agression Without Fighting a War?

Wednesday, July 24th, 2013

Can We Stop Chinese Aggression Without Fighting A War?

Believe Me; It is Easy

By Col Bhaskar Sarkar VSM

Lately, the Chinese Army in Tibet has been at its belligerent best. Some claim that there have been about 120 incursions in the last 150 days. In June, the Chinese had established a huted camp in the Daulat Beg Oldi Sector of Ladakh, which they vacated after India agreed to vacate a post. On July 16, the Chinese destroyed Indian bunkers and surveillance cameras at an Indian post. The incursions are reported and discussed on the TV channels while the Prime Minister is as silent as the Sphinx. The media tries to highlight the incursions. The Government of India ignores the incursions and tries to play it down. There is some talk of raising a new corps for the Chinese front at a cost of Re. 35000 crores. (After paying for the food security bill, it is difficult to understand where the money is going to come from.)

The Solution

Prime Minister Sir, the Pacifist Indian Government which cowers at the thought of having to confront the Chinese on the battle field! Relax. I am not asking you to send the Indian Army to evict the Chinese incursions or asking you to send the Indian Air Force to bomb the Chinese bases in Tibet. There is a simple, less dangerous and peaceful solution to the problem.

India’s trade deficit with China has always been growing. It was just $2.92 billion in 2000. It rose to $15.87billion in 2009, $20.02 in 2010 and $27.08 billion in 2011. This deficit represents 25 percent of India’s trade deficit and about 50 percent of our current account deficit. By 2013, the trade deficit with China should have touched about $40billion. It is also interesting to note that that while China’s exports to the US and Europe is decreasing, its exports to India is growing at a rate of about 25 percent per year. This trade deficit is one of the primary causes of the decline of the rupee and rising cost of fuel. Chinese imports which include a wide range of low tech consumer goods from footwear to toothpaste is also killing Indian small and medium scale industry and reducing employment.

The Chinese belligerence in Ladakh gives us a great opportunity to stop Chinese exports and save the Indian Economy and the Indian Rupee. Simply declare war with China, break off diplomatic relations, stop Chinese exports to India and freeze payments to China till the border dispute is settled and demarcated to the satisfaction of both sides.

Please understand. I am asking the Government of India to declare war and not to start one. Under the WTO regime a country cannot stop imports or freeze funds unless you are at war with the country. So declare war with China, ban all imports from China and freeze all payments. The short term demand for dollars will ease, Indian industry will begin to revive and employment will receive a fillip.

The stoppage of imports will hurt the Chinese where it hurts the most, the economy. The most likely result will be that the Chinese will call for border negotiations. Be firm. Do not normalize relations till the border question is settled and the border is demarcated once for all.

The strategy can be repeated whenever the Chinese Army in Tibet gets belligerent.